FOMC會議回顧:“進展”步進縮減，但尚未偏向“實質性”
FOMC會議回顧:“進展”步進縮減，但尚未偏向“實質性”
MATT WELLER, CFA, CMT
July 28, 2021 8:29 PM
*註: 聯邦公開市場委員會FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee): 聯邦公開市場委員會屬於美國聯邦準備系統，負責進行公開市場操作。
With no updated economic forecasts at this month’s meeting, there were only two major areas of focus for traders: The monetary policy statement and Chairman Powell's press conference.
由於本月會議上沒有更新的經濟預測，交易員只關注兩個主要領域：貨幣政策聲明和鮑威爾主席的新聞發布會。
As we noted in Monday’s FOMC meeting preview report, the Federal Reserve was never going to make any immediate changes to monetary policy at today’s meeting, but the event would still provide a valuable look into how the central bank is viewing the resurgence of COVID cases across the country and the ongoing elevated inflation readings.
正如我們在周一的 FOMC 會議預覽報告中指出的那樣，美聯準永遠不會在今天的會議上立即對貨幣政策做出任何改變，但該事件仍將為央行如何看待 COVID 病例的復甦提供有價值的研究該國和持續升高的通脹讀數。
With no updated economic forecasts at this month’s meeting, there were only two major areas of focus for traders:
由於在本月的會議上沒有更新的經濟預測，交易員只關注兩個主要領域：
(1) Monetary policy statement
(1) 貨幣政策聲明
Unlike recent months, there were some noteworthy changes to the central bank’s monetary policy statement, and on balance, they were more hawkish (read: optimistic on the economy) than some traders were expecting.
與最近幾個月不同的是，央行的貨幣政策聲明發生了一些值得注意的變化，總的來說，它們比一些交易員預期的更加鷹派（解讀：對經濟持樂觀態度）。
Relevant changes to the statement include the following:
聲明的相關更改包括以下內容：
-Removed a reference to vaccinations “reduc[ing] the spread of COVID-19”
-Upgraded assessment of “sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic” from “remain weak” to “have not fully recovered”
-Path of the economy “depends on” the course of the virus, from “depends significantly”
-Added a comment that “the economy has made progress toward these goals [of maximum employment and price stability], and the Committee will continue to asses progress in the coming meetings” when evaluating when to taper asset purchases
- 刪除了對疫苗接種“減少中COVID-19傳播”的提及
- 將“受疫情影響最嚴重的行業”的評估從“保持疲軟”升級為“尚未完全恢復”
-經濟路徑“取決於”病毒的進程，從“很大程度上取決於”
- 在評估何時縮減資產購買時，添加了一條評論，稱“經濟已在實現這些目標（就業最大化和價格穩定）方面取得進展，委員會將在接下來的會議中繼續評估進展”
The fact that the Committee felt comfortable highlighting the economy’s progress (though notably not the “substantial further progress” that Powell has outlined as a threshold for tapering) suggests that the central bank could theoretically still feel comfortable announcing its taper plans at the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium, rather than delaying them as some analysts had expected.
委員會對強調經濟進展感到自在（儘管顯然不是鮑威爾所概述的“實質性進一步進展”作為縮減的門檻）這一事實表明，從理論上講，央行在 8 月下旬宣布其縮減計劃仍會感到自在傑克遜霍爾研討會，而不是像一些分析師預期的那樣推遲。
(2) Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference
(2)主席杰羅姆鮑威爾的新聞發佈會
In his ensuing press conference, Fed Chairman Powell (as usual) revealed a more nuanced and less dramatic view than the statement implied. Powell reiterated that the Committee expected inflation to drop back to the 2% range but could ultimately turn out to be higher and more persistent than expected. He also repeatedly noted that the inflationary comments in the statement represent a joint communication from all the members of the FOMC, suggesting that there may still be some disagreement about how transitory the current price pressures will ultimately prove.
在隨後的新聞發布會上，美聯準主席鮑威爾（像往常一樣）透露了比聲明所暗示的更微妙、更不戲劇化的觀點。鮑威爾重申，委員會預計通膨將回落至 2% 的範圍，但最終可能會比預期的更高、更持久。他還反復指出，聲明中的通貨膨脹言論代表了聯邦公開市場委員會所有成員的聯合溝通，表明對於當前的價格壓力最終將如何短暫存在一些分歧。
Separately, Powell said that the economic data still had “some ground to cover” before meeting the threshold for tapering and that the central bank will provide advance notice before enacting any changes on that front. While it would be premature to rule anything out, these comments suggest that the central bank is more likely eyeing a September or November taper announcement, rather than at the August Jackson Hole Symposium.
另外，鮑威爾表示，在達到縮減的門檻之前，經濟數據仍有“一些基礎”，央行將在這方面做出任何改變之前提前通知。雖然現在排除任何可能性還為時過早，但這些評論表明央行更有可能關注 9 月或 11 月的縮減宣布，而不是在 8 月的傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole Symposium)研討會上。
Market reaction
市場反應
The initial reaction to the release of the statement suggested that the central bank was a bit more hawkish than expected, with the US dollar rising, gold dipping, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury bond ticking up 2bps. However, each of those moves had reversed by the time Chairman Powell took the stage for his press conference and as we go to press, the market’s reaction is more subdued. The most notable development is a touch of weakness in the US dollar, which after an initial pop, is now trading lower about 20 pips against its major rivals as traders bet against a taper announcement next month:
對聲明發布的初步反應表明，央行比預期更鷹派，美元上漲，黃金下跌，基準10年期國債收益率上漲2個基點。然而，當鮑威爾主席上台參加新聞發布會時，這些舉措都發生了逆轉，隨著我們的新聞發布會，市場反應更加溫和。最顯著的發展是美元略有疲軟，在最初的反彈之後，由於交易員押注下個月的縮減公告，美元兌主要競爭對手的交易價格下跌約20個點：
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Source: StoneX, TradingView
Moving forward, traders will remain hyper-focused on incoming data, with inflation and labor market readings taking the most precedence. In that vein, Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) release will be critical, with a hotter-than-expected reading likely needed to keep the door open on an August taper announcement.
展望未來，交易員將繼續高度關注即將到來的數據，其中通脹和勞動力市場數據最為重要。在這方面，週五的核心個人消費支出 (Core PCE) 發布將是至關重要的，可能需要一個高於預期的讀數才能在 8 月的縮減公告中敞開大門。
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: City Index
MATT WELLER, CFA, CMT
July 28, 2021 8:29 PM
*註: 聯邦公開市場委員會FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee): 聯邦公開市場委員會屬於美國聯邦準備系統，負責進行公開市場操作。
With no updated economic forecasts at this month’s meeting, there were only two major areas of focus for traders: The monetary policy statement and Chairman Powell's press conference.
由於本月會議上沒有更新的經濟預測，交易員只關注兩個主要領域：貨幣政策聲明和鮑威爾主席的新聞發布會。
As we noted in Monday’s FOMC meeting preview report, the Federal Reserve was never going to make any immediate changes to monetary policy at today’s meeting, but the event would still provide a valuable look into how the central bank is viewing the resurgence of COVID cases across the country and the ongoing elevated inflation readings.
正如我們在周一的 FOMC 會議預覽報告中指出的那樣，美聯準永遠不會在今天的會議上立即對貨幣政策做出任何改變，但該事件仍將為央行如何看待 COVID 病例的復甦提供有價值的研究該國和持續升高的通脹讀數。
With no updated economic forecasts at this month’s meeting, there were only two major areas of focus for traders:
由於在本月的會議上沒有更新的經濟預測，交易員只關注兩個主要領域：
(1) Monetary policy statement
(1) 貨幣政策聲明
Unlike recent months, there were some noteworthy changes to the central bank’s monetary policy statement, and on balance, they were more hawkish (read: optimistic on the economy) than some traders were expecting.
與最近幾個月不同的是，央行的貨幣政策聲明發生了一些值得注意的變化，總的來說，它們比一些交易員預期的更加鷹派（解讀：對經濟持樂觀態度）。
Relevant changes to the statement include the following:
聲明的相關更改包括以下內容：
-Removed a reference to vaccinations “reduc[ing] the spread of COVID-19”
-Upgraded assessment of “sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic” from “remain weak” to “have not fully recovered”
-Path of the economy “depends on” the course of the virus, from “depends significantly”
-Added a comment that “the economy has made progress toward these goals [of maximum employment and price stability], and the Committee will continue to asses progress in the coming meetings” when evaluating when to taper asset purchases
- 刪除了對疫苗接種“減少中COVID-19傳播”的提及
- 將“受疫情影響最嚴重的行業”的評估從“保持疲軟”升級為“尚未完全恢復”
-經濟路徑“取決於”病毒的進程，從“很大程度上取決於”
- 在評估何時縮減資產購買時，添加了一條評論，稱“經濟已在實現這些目標（就業最大化和價格穩定）方面取得進展，委員會將在接下來的會議中繼續評估進展”
The fact that the Committee felt comfortable highlighting the economy’s progress (though notably not the “substantial further progress” that Powell has outlined as a threshold for tapering) suggests that the central bank could theoretically still feel comfortable announcing its taper plans at the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium, rather than delaying them as some analysts had expected.
委員會對強調經濟進展感到自在（儘管顯然不是鮑威爾所概述的“實質性進一步進展”作為縮減的門檻）這一事實表明，從理論上講，央行在 8 月下旬宣布其縮減計劃仍會感到自在傑克遜霍爾研討會，而不是像一些分析師預期的那樣推遲。
(2) Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference
(2)主席杰羅姆鮑威爾的新聞發佈會
In his ensuing press conference, Fed Chairman Powell (as usual) revealed a more nuanced and less dramatic view than the statement implied. Powell reiterated that the Committee expected inflation to drop back to the 2% range but could ultimately turn out to be higher and more persistent than expected. He also repeatedly noted that the inflationary comments in the statement represent a joint communication from all the members of the FOMC, suggesting that there may still be some disagreement about how transitory the current price pressures will ultimately prove.
在隨後的新聞發布會上，美聯準主席鮑威爾（像往常一樣）透露了比聲明所暗示的更微妙、更不戲劇化的觀點。鮑威爾重申，委員會預計通膨將回落至 2% 的範圍，但最終可能會比預期的更高、更持久。他還反復指出，聲明中的通貨膨脹言論代表了聯邦公開市場委員會所有成員的聯合溝通，表明對於當前的價格壓力最終將如何短暫存在一些分歧。
Separately, Powell said that the economic data still had “some ground to cover” before meeting the threshold for tapering and that the central bank will provide advance notice before enacting any changes on that front. While it would be premature to rule anything out, these comments suggest that the central bank is more likely eyeing a September or November taper announcement, rather than at the August Jackson Hole Symposium.
另外，鮑威爾表示，在達到縮減的門檻之前，經濟數據仍有“一些基礎”，央行將在這方面做出任何改變之前提前通知。雖然現在排除任何可能性還為時過早，但這些評論表明央行更有可能關注 9 月或 11 月的縮減宣布，而不是在 8 月的傑克遜霍爾(Jackson Hole Symposium)研討會上。
Market reaction
市場反應
The initial reaction to the release of the statement suggested that the central bank was a bit more hawkish than expected, with the US dollar rising, gold dipping, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury bond ticking up 2bps. However, each of those moves had reversed by the time Chairman Powell took the stage for his press conference and as we go to press, the market’s reaction is more subdued. The most notable development is a touch of weakness in the US dollar, which after an initial pop, is now trading lower about 20 pips against its major rivals as traders bet against a taper announcement next month:
對聲明發布的初步反應表明，央行比預期更鷹派，美元上漲，黃金下跌，基準10年期國債收益率上漲2個基點。然而，當鮑威爾主席上台參加新聞發布會時，這些舉措都發生了逆轉，隨著我們的新聞發布會，市場反應更加溫和。最顯著的發展是美元略有疲軟，在最初的反彈之後，由於交易員押注下個月的縮減公告，美元兌主要競爭對手的交易價格下跌約20個點：
Source: StoneX, TradingView
Moving forward, traders will remain hyper-focused on incoming data, with inflation and labor market readings taking the most precedence. In that vein, Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) release will be critical, with a hotter-than-expected reading likely needed to keep the door open on an August taper announcement.
展望未來，交易員將繼續高度關注即將到來的數據，其中通脹和勞動力市場數據最為重要。在這方面，週五的核心個人消費支出 (Core PCE) 發布將是至關重要的，可能需要一個高於預期的讀數才能在 8 月的縮減公告中敞開大門。
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: City Index
