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2021-03-31 金價未能守住1,700美元，因美國國債收窄2016年以來最差季度
發佈日期：2021-03-31
金價未能守住1,700美元，因美國國債收窄2016年以來最差季度
Anna Golubova
Tuesday March 30, 2021 13:36
Gold cannot ignore the rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are wrapping up the worst quarter since 2016.
黃金不能忽視美國國債收益率的上升，美國國債收益率結束了自2016年以來最糟糕的季度。
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 14-month high on Tuesday, climbing to 1.77%. The sell-off in Treasuries has been led by the reflation trade, which is supported by fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy.
美國十年期美國國債收益率週二觸及14個月高位，升至1.77％。美國國債的拋售是由通貨緊縮貿易主導的，通貨緊縮貿易受到財政刺激和美聯儲寬鬆貨幣政策的支持。
Overall, 10-year bond yields have climbed 81.87 basis points since the start of the year. This marks the biggest surge and worst performance since Q4 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidential election and yields rose 84 basis points.
總體而言，自年初以來，十年期債券收益率已攀升81.87個基點。這是自2016年第四季度以來最大的漲幅和最差的表現，當時唐納德·特朗普贏得了總統大選，收益率上升了84個基點。
Gold's performance year-to-date has been weighed down by this headwind. "Another spike in U.S. Treasury yields, along with USD strength, weighed heavily on gold," said ING senior commodities strategist Wenyu Yao.
迄今為止，黃金的年初表現一直受到這種不利因素的拖累。 ING高級商品策略師姚文宇表示：“美國國債收益率再度飆升，加上美元走強，對黃金構成沉重壓力。”
More vaccines and more spending
更多疫苗和更多支出
Accelerating the move in yields this week is the market's anticipation of more stimulus. President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak in Pittsburgh on Wednesday to outline his economic plan, including infrastructure spending and tax hikes. The overall package is expected to exceed $3 trillion.
市場預期本週將出台更多刺激措施，從而加速收益率的走勢。總統拜登（Joe Biden）定於週三在匹茲堡發表演講，概述其經濟計劃，包括基礎設施支出和增稅。整個一攬子計劃預計將超過3萬億美元。
"The treasury markets are cautious ahead of President Biden's spending plans," said Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia regions at StoneX. "The markets had expected asset quarter-end asset-rotation to benefit bonds, but thus far the reverse has developed."
StoneX歐洲，中東和非洲及亞洲地區市場分析主管羅納·奧康奈爾（Rhona O'Connell）說：“在拜登總統的支出計劃之前，財資市場保持謹慎。” “市場原本預計資產季度末的資產輪換將使債券受益，但到目前為止，情況已經逆轉了。”
On top of that, there is Biden's ambitious 90-90 vaccine plan, which sees 90% of U.S. adults as eligible for vaccines by April 19 and 90% of the population living within five miles of a vaccination site.
最重要的是，拜登制定了雄心勃勃的90-90疫苗計劃，該計劃規定，到4月19日，美國90％的成年人有資格使用疫苗，而90％的人口居住在疫苗接種點五英里範圍內。
"[This is] boosting risk appetite and fuelling hopes that the world's largest economy can recover more swiftly than expected," said SP Angel analyst John Meyer.
SP Angel分析師John Meyer表示：“這正在提振風險偏好，並激發了人們對世界最大經濟體復甦速度可能超過預期的希望。”
Gold tumbles
黃金下跌
Gold was unable to hold its key support level of $1,700 an ounce on Tuesday. Year-to-date, gold is down 12.5%. This would mark the first quarterly decline since 2018. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,680.30, down 1.86% on the day.
黃金未能在周二維持其關鍵支撐位1,700美元/盎司。年初至今，黃金下跌了12.5％。這將是自2018年以來的第一個季度下跌。在撰寫本文時，6月Comex黃金期貨交易價格為1,680.30美元，當日下跌1.86％。
However, it is not just about the yields. The macroeconomic environment that weighs on gold is quite intertwined.
但是，這不僅僅關乎產量。黃金的宏觀經濟環境交織在一起。
As Treasuries sell off, they push investors towards the safety of the U.S. dollar, which puts additional pressure on gold. The U.S. dollar index reached a four-month high this week on the positive developments in the U.S. At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar index was trading at 93.22.
隨著美國國債的拋售，它們推動投資者向美元安全邁進，這給黃金帶來了進一步的壓力。由於美元的積極發展，本周美元指數創四個月新高。在撰寫本文時，美元指數報93.22。
"It is becoming clear that the mighty dollar is the culprit behind gold's decline. The encouraging developments on the vaccine front in the U.S. have fuelled hopes for a faster U.S. economic recovery, consequently boosting appetite for the greenback. Should the dollar extend gains in the week ahead, this is likely to drag gold prices lower," said FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga.
“很明顯，強大的美元是黃金下跌的罪魁禍首。美國疫苗領域令人鼓舞的事態發展激發了人們對美國更快經濟復甦的希望，從而提振了人們對美元的胃口。如果美元擴大美元的漲幅，未來一周，這可能會拖累金價走低。” FXTM高級研究分析師Lukman Otunuga表示。
The pressure from rising yields is not going away anytime soon, according to TD Securities, which is projecting for the 10-year yields to reach 2% by the year-end.
道明證券（TD Securities）表示，收益率上升的壓力不會很快消失，該公司預計十年期收益率到年底將達到2％。
The only hope for gold is to start diverging from its inverse relationship with yields, said RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis.
RJO期貨高級商品經紀人丹尼爾·帕維洛尼斯（Daniel Pavilonis）表示，黃金的唯一希望是開始擺脫其與收益率的反比關係。
"Maybe we could start to snap free of the correlation that if rates go up, gold has to go down. If we can deviate away from that with the announcement of Biden's new infrastructure package, it will be good for gold," he said. "When we see inflation, it is time to buy gold."
他說：“也許我們可以開始擺脫如果利率上升，黃金就必須下跌的相關性。如果我們可以通過宣布拜登的新基礎設施計劃而偏離黃金價格，那將對黃金有利。” “當我們看到通貨膨脹時，就該購買黃金了。”
By Anna Golubova
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用來源: Kitco News